WHAT’S INSIDE

👇️ Todays’ Feature: The BoE, IMF & JPM Warn Of AI Bubble Riskx

• Tech News: AI Bubble & Fed's Balance, China's Rare-Earth Controls, Gemini 3

• Company Watch: IBM x Anthropic, ABB Robotics, Prime Intellect, Base Power

• Buzzy Tools: Latest Buzzy tech, AI and financial tools

• Deep Tech: The latest in deep tech, biotech, futurism and more

• Space Tech: Latest news in the space race and aerospace tech

• Crypto: Blockchain and crypto policy and startups or protocols to watch

TECH IN THE NEWS

Market Jitters on AI and Fed — The Bank of England, IMF and JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon warn of the bubble popping if confidence in AI or the Fed wanes. Stock valuations echo the dotcom bubble peak.

Fed's Balancing Act — Federal Reserve officials are debating potential interest rate cuts due to job market risks. New Governor Stephen Miran pushes for larger cuts, but inflation concerns persist, complicating consensus on future monetary policy.

Quiet Please! — California mandates streaming ads match content volume by July 2026, targeting platforms like Netflix and YouTube. This law aims for better consumer protection and could inspire nationwide adoption.

China's Rare-Earth Grip — China expands export controls on rare-earth minerals, now totaling 12 elements. Foreign producers need licenses, with semiconductor applications scrutinized. This move highlights China's strategic trade leverage.

Google's AI Leap — Google unveils Gemini Enterprise, an AI platform for businesses, challenging Anthropic and OpenAI. It offers AI agents for workplace tasks, priced at $30/seat/mth. Gemini 3 could be released any day.

Europe's AI Independence — The EC unveils a $1.1B plan to boost AI in healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and energy, reducing reliance on U.S. and China. Funded by EU research projects, it seeks funds from members and the private sector.

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Chat Driven OS, SB 53 and AI Safety

Vivien Wang

This week we’ve seen a growing chorus of high profile figures warning of an AI Bubble. The Bank of England, the IMF, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and Goldman Sachs have all warned of a possible sharp correction hitting the economy if confidence in AI or the Fed wanes. The ongoing Federal Shutdown is emerging as another serious risk factor that could spark a crash.

It’s undisputed that over the past few years, the AI industry has grown at an incredible rate, pulling up with it both the stock market and VC investment. Many tech firms are now almost synonymous with AI companies while new AI startups are popping up every day. According to Pitchbook, AI has drawn more than half of all VC investment this year, a sum of over $190B. 

However, the rapid growth and investment facilitated by AI is also raising concerns from professional analysts. Many economists fear that the hundreds of billions of dollars being funneled into AI, especially costly AI infrastructure like data centers, are indicative of a potential bubble – one that could have disastrous implications if burst. 

Investment or Overheating?

The copious amounts of funding pouring into AI are largely due to AI giants like Anthropic, which raised a $13B round just last month and tripled its valuation in only six months. OpenAI also recently received a $100B investment commitment from Nvidia and reached a $500B valuation after a private stock sale of $6.6B, making it the most valuable private company in the world. 

This funding has been extremely concentrated with just eight companies receiving 62% of all AI capital by midyear while smaller, non-AI startups struggled to draw interest. There are now more than 370 private AI unicorns worth over $1T combined; this is a 74% increase from last year and a figure that eclipses the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble. 

AI has driven the stock market to near record highs and is rivalling consumer spending in impact on economic growth. The Nasdaq is up over 18% for the year, while the S&P 500’s $8.5T gain is being propelled by the AI bets that its Magnificent 7 are making. The influence of AI spending extends beyond just its own industry, as the $400B commitment made by Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon to data centers – which would affect energy and construction – indicates. 

The economy’s current reliance on AI isn’t a good sign to some experts, who warn of unsustainable growth and overvaluation of AI companies. Many companies with just the AI label attached are able to raise large amounts of funding at what could be inflated valuations, oftentimes reaching unicorn status pre-revenue or even pre-product. Furthermore, the outlook on the labor market isn’t looking so good. Even as tech hiring is continuing in the AI sector, private payroll growth has been weak, layoffs have been rising, and new hires have been declining. 

All this has led to wariness surrounding AI, especially if the investment being made into the industry doesn’t prove to be backed up by the value its products are expected to provide. 

A Potential AI Bubble

Adding to the concerns surrounding a potential AI bubble are the comparisons some of the highest profile AI investments are drawing to past bubbles. Deals like Nvidia’s vendor financing for OpenAI have been compared to Lucent’s notorious telecom bubble strategy, where suppliers lend money to customers so they can buy the supplier’s products. This kind of circular financing could be another indicator of possible collapse, though it’s important to note the differences in nature and time period between Nvidia and Lucent. However, Nvidia’s bet on OpenAI is still significant, especially since OpenAI leases GPUs rather than buying them, shifting depreciation risk to Nvidia and raising its off-balance-sheet exposure. 

Even Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos have pointed out the parallels between AI and both the dot com and late-1800s railroad bubbles. All have been marked by sky high valuations, FOMO-driven capital allocation, and a rush to fund the next winners, whether they be obvious or speculative. The Bank of England and the IMF have also advised caution after recent market volatility, highlighting concentration risk and overstretched price to earnings ratios. 

The Fear of Missing Out

It seems that much of the investment into AI has been driven by FOMO– a fear of missing out. The effects are seen more acutely among young investors relying on social media sentiment and rapid news, contributing to speculative surges and amplifying boom-bust cycles. AI-linked stocks have surged up to 100% in months as a result. VCs, individual investors, and companies alike all seem to be jumping at any opportunity to capitalize on AI, each not wanting to be the one left behind when (or if) it proves to take off. 

While this FOMO feeds into the hype and excitement around AI, it doesn’t bode well for AI as a bubble. Market observers fear that these kinds of trends can reverse quickly, citing a rising correlation between spikes in the Global FOMO Index and short term drops in stock returns. 

However, some experts, including Morgan Stanley, argue that whether or not AI is a bubble, the cash, development and adoption in the industry are real. Jeff Bezos, despite calling AI an “industrial bubble”, argues that, like the internet bubble, genuine innovation will yield huge long-term value even if the short-term corrections punish weak players. Others like Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett maintain that without central bank tightening, bubbles won’t burst. Despite these more optimistic perspectives, there still exists the threat that now due to AI’s extension to many adjacent industries, a bubble burst could send a negative rippling impact through the livelihoods of countless people. 

The Outlook

With billions of dollars raised, a trillion-dollar unicorn class, and the Nasdaq at record highs, there’s no doubting AI’s economic influence – or the risk of collective delusions if growth and value fall short of being as revolutionary as expected. The boom could reshape the economy and society, but investors, founders, experts, and employees are all watching for the next market test. Whether AI turns out to be simply a messy surge or another disastrous bubble, there will undoubtedly come a time for investment to confront the consequences. 

COMPANIES TO WATCH

IBM x Anthropic — IBM partners with Anthropic to integrate Claude LLMs into enterprise software, enhancing AI deployment with specialized alliances as Claude gains preference over OpenAI for security features.

SoftBank — Acquired ABB's robotics division for $5.4B, strengthening its industrial robotics position as part of its "Physical AI" strategy to enhance capabilities in AI-powered automation.

Prime Intellect — US startup offers distributed reinforcement learning platform democratizing AI development by enabling anyone to contribute computing power, challenging centralized models with INTELLECT-3 launch.

Polymarket — The Event-based trading platform disclosed $2B investment from ICE, with previous rounds totaling $205M, now valued at $9B with plans to expand.

Base Power — Austin-based home battery startup secured $1B Series C funding at $3B valuation, sold 100+ MWh of batteries, plans second U.S. factory, offering lease options with grid selling.

TSMC — Taiwanese semiconductor giant reported 30% year-on-year Q3 revenue increase to $32.47B, exceeding forecasts due to strong AI-related product demand.

SignalPulse — Read the Top signals, Startups + Deals From Last Week

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BUZZY TOOLS

Buzzy Tech Tools To Watch & Use

Tesla — Cheap Model 3 & Y launched, missing $25K target, aiming to boost sales.

Google — Multiple Gemini AI updates: Home AI assistant for smart devices, 2.5 for browser agents, and Shopping AI shoe try-on.

Zendesk — Autonomous AI resolves 80% of customer issues, transforming service.

Mozilla Firefox — New profiles feature enhances privacy, organizes online activities.

1Password — Secure Agentic Autofill enhances AI agent security w/ biometric auth.

Amazon — Alexa Plus offers generative AI for natural language in smart homes.

BUZZY TECH

The Latest Deep Technology & Trends To Watch

Nvidia 6G Coalition — AI-native network for telecom economics, cybersec.

India's AI E-Commerce — AI pilot enables agentic shopping, payments w/ OpenAI.

Diamond Computer Chips — Enhance chip efficiency, reduce data center heat.

Samsung's Tiny Recursion Model (TRM) — 7M pm AI outperforms larger models.

Cisco 8223 Routing System — 51.2 Tbps throughput boosts AI network scalability.

MetaGraph — Biological search engine indexes DNA, RNA, protein sequences.

TOUCAN — 1.5M trajectories enhance LLM tools w/ diverse task interactions.

CRYPTO WATCH

Roughrider Stablecoin — Fiserv and the Bank of North Dakota will launch the "Roughrider" stablecoin in 2024, targeting banks and credit unions. On FIUSD, it aims to enhance the digital finance ecosystem with secure, instant payments.

Square's Bitcoin Boost — Fee-free Bitcoin payment and integrated solution for merchants to accept and hold crypto and convert up to 50% of daily revenue into BTC fee free until 2027 + AI voice ordering for restaurants. Stock hits an 8-month high.

Coinbase Base Expansion — The Base team is hiring a token & governance research specialist to craft a token strategy and decentralized governance plan. Aims to define token goals and collaborate across teams, as Base grows post-mainnet.

North Korean Hacks — North Korean hackers have stolen over $2B in cryptocurrency in 2025 alone, the highest annual record. The UN links these funds to the country's nuclear weapons program.

Tokenization Freight Train — Robinhood's CEO Vlad Tenev forecasts that tokenization of real-world assets will revolutionize global finance. Robinhood has launched over 200 tokenized US stocks in the EU, major markets expected to adopt.

SPACE_RACE

Space Force Fund_$1B ongoing fund established for military-commercial space.

Blue Origin New Shepard_Completes sixth crewed flight; plans weekly launches.

SpaceX Starlink_Launched 28 satellites with Falcon 9; made 8th landing.

Nuclear Moon Villages_Australia in space rACE W/ rover, intl p’ships.

AST SpaceMobile_Partners with Verizon for space-based cellular broadband.

Kinetica 2 Rocket_CAS Space's first liquid propelled rocket eyes tourism by 2028.

Galactic Matter Ejection_Supermassive black holes reveal cosmic distribution.

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