WHAT’S INSIDE

👇️ Todays’ Feature: Betting on Tomorrow With Prediction Markets

• Tech News: Mixed Market Signals, Rate Cuts, K2 Think jailbreak, OpenAI IPO

• Company Watch: Figure, Oracle, Cognition, Replit, Nuclearn, Perplexity

• Buzzy Tools: Latest Buzzy tech, AI and financial tools

• Deep Tech: The latest in deep tech, biotech, futurism and more

• Space Tech: Latest news in the space race and aerospace tech

• Crypto: Blockchain and crypto policy and startups or protocols to watch

TECH IN THE NEWS

Mixed Signals — Jobless claims hit a four-year high, strengthening expectations for a Fed rate cut next week while inflation rose to 2.9%. Despite growth concerns, Wall Street indices reached new highs as markets prioritize hopes for rate cuts.

Central Banks Eye Stability — Global central banks shift focus to maintaining economic stability amid volatile markets. Interest rate adjustments and policy recalibrations are expected as leaders aim to curb inflation and manage growth.

Power Play Concerns — A Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals many Americans are uneasy about President Trump's efforts to expand presidential power. The majority support limits, opposing troop deployments to cities and economic interventions.

AI Titans Align — OpenAI and Microsoft restructure their partnership for OpenAI's $500B IPO. Regulatory probes in California and Delaware challenge the nonprofit-to-profit transition, potentially reshaping AI funding and corporate frameworks.

AI Transparency Trap — K2 Think, an AI from the UAE backed by G42, was jailbroken via its transparency features., exposings a security dilemma, risking data in sectors like healthcare, education, finance.

Settlement Rejected — A judge has dismissed Anthropic's proposed $1.5B settlement in a copyright case involving 500K authors, citing inadequate notification and claims processes. A revised plan and approval deadline are set for Oct. 10.

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Betting on Tomorrow with Prediction Markets

TechBuzz Editorial

How prediction markets are becoming mainstream finance, why VCs are pouring in, and what risks emerge when the future itself becomes tradeable.

Prediction markets are moving into the financial mainstream – offering accuracy, liquidity, and new profit models. Yet as the Charlie Kirk assassination has drawn attention to, the line between forecast and incentive in the political realm is thin.

Crypto Prediction Markets Go Legit 

Last week, Polymarket announced it had received the green light from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch legally in the United States. The milestone ends years of offshore exile and caps a saga that included an FBI raid, regulatory probes, and an eventual $112M licensed exchange acquisition.

The timing couldn’t be better for the crypto-native platform. Polymarket has already processed billions in trades, overtaking established sportsbooks in traffic, and recently struck a partnership with Elon Musk’s X to become X’s official prediction market.

Earlier this year, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200 million round that valued the company above $1 billion. Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital also invested, joining Polymarket’s advisory board.

Polymarket’s biggest rival is on notice. Kalshi recently hired influencer John Wang as its head of crypto, with a mandate to expand the company’s onchain presence and grow a builder ecosystem. The move followed a splashy partnership with Robinhood to list NFL and NCAA markets, and signals that Kalshi now sees crypto rails as core to its growth. While crypto-natives remain skeptical — citing past attempts to undermine Polymarket — Kalshi is betting that blending regulated event contracts with blockchain infrastructure will open up entirely new trading categories.

The Regulatory Green Light

Until recently, crypto-based prediction markets operated in a gray zone — popular offshore but blocked in the U.S. That shifted this summer when the CFTC granted no-action relief for event contracts, signaling that licensed platforms can now offer prediction markets without running afoul of swap reporting and recordkeeping rules.

For Polymarket, the breakthrough came through its $112M acquisition of derivatives exchange QCX, which brought it under CFTC oversight. For Underdog, legitimacy arrived via Crypto.com’s derivatives trading arm, CDNA, which is already registered with the agency. And for Kalshi, which had been fighting state-level regulators over its sports products, the new environment makes its crypto expansion more defensible.

The Trump administration’s friendlier stance on crypto betting has accelerated the trend: both the CFTC and DOJ closed probes into Polymarket earlier this year without charges, and former CFTC lawyers are now openly celebrating companies like Underdog entering the space. The result: what was once a regulatory liability is fast becoming a federally blessed asset class.

A Billion-Dollar Data Engine

Advocates argue the financial logic is irresistible. Prediction markets often forecast elections, economic outcomes, and cultural events with more accuracy than polls or pundits. Liquidity turns sentiment into signal: if traders push the odds of a government shutdown to 60%, that’s not opinion — it’s aggregated risk pricing.

In 2024, Polymarket users wagered over $8B during the U.S. election cycle, with results beating major polls for accuracy. Today, one of its trending markets asks: Will the U.S. government shut down in 2025? Tens of millions of dollars are already riding on the answer.

The “Deadpool” Incentive Problem

But financial innovation comes with edge cases. A viral post from Graham Novak crystallized the concern. He warned that seemingly innocuous markets can become “implicit bounty boards”: if tens of millions of dollars are tied to a candidate’s nomination, a bad actor could profit by ensuring the outcome collapses to zero.

The point isn’t that this has already happened — there’s no evidence connecting prediction markets to the recent Charlie Kirk assassination. But the tragedy illustrated the danger in sharp relief. If markets scale to hundreds of millions in volume, the incentives become less theoretical. 

Where It Goes From Here

Prediction markets now sit at a crossroads. On one side: institutional investors, regulated frameworks, and sports-driven mainstream adoption. On the other: moral hazard and regulatory scrutiny over whether financial incentives can corrupt real-world events.

For now, the boom is undeniable. Venture capital, crypto platforms, and political heavyweights are all betting that prediction markets represent the next big speculative asset. But as the line between forecasting and influencing outcomes blurs, the question remains: when we bet on tomorrow, are we also changing it?

COMPANIES TO WATCH

[IPO] Figure — The home equity lender leveraging blockchain tech, is pursuing a $4.13B valuation in its IPO. With $341M in 2024 revenue and $17B in loans funded, Figure seeks to raise $526M by issuing 21.46M shares on Nasdaq under the "FIGR."

Oracle — Signed a $300B, five-year cloud computing deal with OpenAI, causing a 36% stock surge. Oracle's cloud business is projected to net $18B revenue this year and projects $114B in total revenue by fiscal 2029 driven by GPU cloud demand.

OpenAI — OpenAI has received Microsoft's approval to transform its for-profit arm into a public benefit corporation, valuing its nonprofit stake at over $100B ahead of a planned IPO, despite facing regulatory challenges and Elon Musk's lawsuit.

Microsoft — Integrates Anthropic's AI in Office 365, Microsoft aims to reduce reliance on OpenAI amid growing tensions. Anthropic's models outperform in creating visual presentations.

Cognition — The AI coding platform raised over $400M, reaching a $10.2B valuation after acquiring Windsurf. The funding, led by Founders Fund, propelled its ARR from $1M to $73M.

Black Forest Labs — Announced a $140M multi-year contract with Meta, which will invest $35M now and $105M in 2026 to enhance its AI image technology.

Replit — The San Fran collaborative AI coding platform raised $250M, boosting its valuation to $3B. With ARR surging from $2.8M to $150M in a year, it partners with Google Cloud and is now on Microsoft Azure.

Volkswagen — The German auto giant plans to invest up to $1.2B in artificial intelligence by 2030 aiming to enhance AI-supported vehicle development, industrial applications, and IT infrastructure to boost efficiency and accelerate vehicle rollouts.

Nuclearn — Raised $10.5M to boost AI integration in the nuclear sector. Founded by ex-Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station employees, it automates processes in 65+ reactors globally, ensuring human oversight and tailored documentation.

Perplexity — An AI-powered search startup, Perplexity has raised $200M at a $20B valuation. The company, nearing $200M in ARR, has raised $1.5B in three years and aims to rival Google.

 SignalPulse — Read the Top signals, Startups + Deals From Last Week

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BUZZY TOOLS

Buzzy Tech Tools To Watch & Use

Anthropic — Claude AI gains automatic memory & can now create and edit files.

Really Simple Licensing (RSL) — Web licensing standard for AI content usage.

Nvidia — Rubin CPX chip with 30 petaFLOPs, 128GB memory, for AI processing.

K2 Think — UAE O-S AI by MBZUAI and G42 excels with 32B pm in reasoning.

Oboe — AI app for creating customizable learning courses via simple prompts.

OpenWav — Empowers artists via direct fan engagement and AI tools.

Clyx — Social platform combating loneliness by connecting users via local events.

BUZZY TECH

The Latest Deep Technology & Trends To Watch

Thinking Machines Lab — $2B effort for reproducible AI via GPU randomness.

Gmail Purchases Tab — New tab tracks deliveries, centralizes purchase emails.

7-Eleven Robots — Robots tackle labor shortages by restocking, cleaning in Tokyo.

Songfox Licensing Agreement — AI licensing model ensures artist compensation.

DIGIERA HoloMax — Glasses-free 3D device with AstraDepth3D, eye-tracking.

CRYPTO WATCH

Crypto Super App Vision — SEC Chair Paul Atkins advocates for crypto super apps, integrating trading, lending, and staking under one regulatory license. Emphasizing self-custody, this could streamline compliance and redefine regulation.

Worldcoin Surge — The native token of Sam Altman’s identity-focused crypto project, WLD soared 100% after Nasdaq-listed Eightco unveiled a $250M DAT. The deal involves over 170M shares of common stock, & a $20M investment from BitMine.

Figure — The home equity lender leveraging blockchain technology, is pursuing a $4.13B valuation in its IPO. With $341M in 2024 revenue and $17B in loans funded, Figure seeks to raise $526M by issuing 21.46M shares on Nasdaq under "FIGR."

Gemini IPO — Priced at $28 per share, valuing the crypto exchange at $3.3B and raising $425M. Despite $159M and $283M losses in 2024 and 2025, it aims for growth with retail shares and institutional backing.

Avalanche Foundation — Raising $1B to support companies within the AVAX treasury, focusing on educational content. The newsletter discloses potential commissions from linked products and notes the team holds crypto assets.

LINEA Token Turmoil — LINEA token holders face a 50% value drop post-launch. Joseph Lubin of Consensys hints at future rewards through additional airdrops, based on holding duration and amount, despite early sell-offs impacting value.

SPACE_RACE

SpaceX_Fully reusable Starship planned for 2026, will have orbital lift for 100 tons 

Starlink_Satellites to provide direct to sat mobile phone services within two years

NASA Access Ban_Chinese nationals barred from NASA over national security

Solar Event Prediction AI_NASA, KX AI forecasts solar flares and disruptions

Rendezvous Robotics_Modular tiles autonomously assemble structures in orbit

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