WHAT’S INSIDE

👇️ Feature: Massive AI Deals Continue To Offset Bubble Concerns

Also: $38B Amazon x OpenAI Deal, China Rare Earth Deal, US Debt, T-bill Market, Fed Shutdown, Fintechs To Become Banks?, New York Elections, Microsoft UAE Chip Deal

• Company Watch: Mercor, Gloo, Humans&, Pine Labs, IREN, Poolside, Lambda

• Buzzy Tools: Latest Buzzy tech, AI and financial tools

• Deep Tech: The latest in deep tech, biotech, futurism and more

• Space Tech: Latest news in the space race and aerospace tech

• Crypto: Blockchain and crypto policy and startups or protocols to watch

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TECH IN THE NEWS

Rare Earth Reprieve — China lifts US rare earth export restrictions in a trade deal with averting 100% tariffs and easing tech supply chain worries. Experts still urge diversification to reduce reliance on Chinese minerals.

AI Propels Markets — Amazon shares jumped over 4% following $38B OpenAI deal. Nvidia up 2%+. Mixed stock performance elsewhere as investors remain wary of economic data delays amid government shutdown. USD hits a 3 mth high.

US Debt Outlook Steady — The US Treasury plans to increase T-bill issuance, while long-term bonds remain steady. Analysts expect no surprises in debt strategy as the government navigates fiscal challenges and market conditions.

Shutdown — The government shutdown nears a historic length, with economic impacts deepening. Pres. Trump remains firm against Dem demands, impacting air traffic controllers and SNAP benefits as Trump vows to withhold 50% of SNAP pay.

Trump Backs Cuomo — Pres. Trump endorsed Andrew Cuomo in NYC's mayoral race against frontrunner Zohran Mamdani, threatening to cut federal funds if Mamdani wins. High early voting signals the election's significance for US politics.

Fintech & The Fed — The Federal Reserve may offer fintech firms like Circle and Stripe direct payment system access via "skinny" master accounts, bypassing sponsor banks. This move could reshape fintech's role in the financial ecosystem.

Massive AI Deals Vs Bubble Concerns

Vivien Wang

Wall Street was mixed as trading opened Monday, with continued massive corporate dealmaking activity like Amazon’s record-breaking $38B deal with OpenAI for cloud infrastructure, Nvidia’s $1B deal with Nokia and Microsoft’s deals with the UAE and Bitcoin miner IREN. However, this remains the exception to a multitude of murky signals surrounding the path for US growth and interest rates. 

Major stock indices are hovering just below all time highs, and the dollar has just climbed to a fresh three-month peak, reflecting continuous global demand for US assets amid still-surging investment in AI. 

Record Revenue and Valuations

Last week, Google reported its first-ever $102.4B revenue quarter, fueled by its aggressive AI product launches and deepening cloud adoption. This number is double Google’s quarterly revenue five years ago at $50B. Google Cloud’s multiple $1B+ deals and Gemini’s 650M monthly users, along with AI Overviews and AI Mode driving Search growth, have been instrumental in Google’s historic moment. 

Apple also hit record numbers of $102.5B in quarterly revenue as demand for the shiny new iPhone 17 soared, while Amazon’s AWS arm grew at its fastest pace since 2022, driving its stock up nearly 10% in a week. 

In terms of valuations – OpenAI is preparing for its IPO, targeting a staggering $1T valuation and a $60B fundraising round. Despite these ambitions, the company is still suffering mounting operational losses that are estimated to reach $27B this year alone. Nvidia has also made history by becoming the world’s first $5T company, posting a 50% stock gain year-to-date due to $500B in chop orders through 2026. It then followed this up with a $1B Nokia chip supply deal to support next generation European AI infrastructure. 

Capital expenditures are looking to continue to spike as Google expects to surpass $92B this year and target significant growth again in 2026 and as Microsoft dedicates $80B in spending to keep up with the enterprise AI arms race.

Meta, on the other hand, is experiencing the flip side of high AI spending; a $15.93B one-off tax charge caused its stock to drop 9%, and mixed results have underscored investor concerns over capital expenditure and uncertain ROI from its heavy AI investments. 

Amid the jumble of headline numbers, there are still cracks. Some companies are reporting record revenues, but underlying profits face pressure from massive investments and rising costs while the broader job market remains uneven and inflation worries Fed officials.

Repeated AI Bubble Warnings

As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, worries about an AI bubble continue to mount as fund managers and market strategists warn that AI stock valuations are decoupling from business fundamentals – the explosion has pushed leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft to levels once considered implausible for tech firms. 

The stream of mega deals, culminating in OpenAI’s restructuring and partnership spree plus the Amazon tie-up, has fueled both optimism and skepticism; many are asking whether capital allocation is growing detached from realistic future cash flows. The concerns aren’t just about the hype, either. The issue of the scale of investment in chips and data centers mirroring previous tech booms and later bubbles is one that we highlighted a few articles earlier. 

Additionally, the stock market’s current strength has been relying almost exclusively on AI and tech momentum, as traditional sectors are lagging and employment data is sending mixed signals. 

The Outlook: Cycle or Bubble?

The debate over whether AI is truly a monumental shift or another bubble about to burst remains relevant, and will undoubtedly stay as such as we look to the next couple of weeks’ news cycles. 

Some analysts argue that the sheer scale of deals and generational breakthroughs means that the virtuous cycle of the $5T AI trade is different from past bubbles, pointing to real adoption among enterprises and consumers. Others warn that massive capex and debt-funded expansion could soon clash with economic realities, especially if profit growth fails to catch up with valuation spikes or if inflation resumes its climb. Even bullish executives are acknowledging the risks – Sam Altman admitted that his trillion dollar vision requires years of losses and a leap of faith on future revenue streams, as consumers still aren’t paying for most AI services. 

For now, the AI boom is transformative in its enabling of historic revenue, valuations, and investment, but whether Wall Street and Silicon Valley’s excitement is indicative of sustainable evolution or a bubble remains an open question. 

COMPANIES TO WATCH

[Open] Gloo Holdings — The AI Tools for faith-bbased groups is targeting an $873.4M valuation in its IPO, aiming to raise $109.2M. Led by ex-Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, it focuses on developing AI tools.

[Open] Humans& — Eric Zelikman, former xAI researcher, is raising $1B for his AI startup, targeting a $5B valuation. With early Googler Georges Harik, the company focuses on AI that collaborates with human preferences, requiring significant compute.

[Open] Pine Labs — The Indian fintech leader is going public at a $2.9B valuation, down 40% from 2022. It focuses on global fintech expansion. A 58% rise in international revenue highlights their cross-border growth.

OpenAI — Signed a $38B seven-year deal with Amazon’s AWS, ending its exclusive MS relationship, & gaining access to Nvidia GPU resources. It will still invest $250B in Azure services. Altman revealed ARR of $13B+ denied immediate IPO plans.

Meta — Investing $600B in AI over three years, faces investor concerns as AI spending hasn't boosted revenue. Despite a $20B Q3 profit, META fell 12%, losing $200B in market cap. Analysts call for clearer AI product strategies amid pressure.

MS Chip Leap — Microsoft has secured a $15.2B deal to deploy 21K+ Nvidia GPUs in the UAE, the first U.S. license to export advanced chips to the region. This move aims to challenge China's digital influence.

IREN — The Australian bitcoin mining startup signed a $9.7B, five-year deal with Microsoft to provide AI cloud capacity using Nvidia GB300 GPUs, generating $1.94B ARR. This boosts MS against Amazon and Google in the AI infra battle.

Poolside — Nvidia plans to invest up to $1B in the AI coding startup, valuing it at $12B. It focuses on enterprise-grade AI solutions, with Nvidia's investment aiming to enhance its capabilities and influence in the market.

Lambda — The Kansas AI infrastructure startup secured a multibillion-dollar partnership with Microsoft to deploy AI infrastructure using Nvidia chips. This strategic expansion includes an "AI factory"

Mercor — The AI recruiting startup, led by three 22-year-old founders, secured a $350M funding round, valuing it at $10B. It specializes in matching engineers with companies, making its founders the world's youngest self-made billionaires.

SignalPulse — Read the Top signals, Startups + Deals From Last Week

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BUZZY TOOLS

Buzzy Tech Tools To Watch & Use

Adobe — AI tools for seamless video, lighting, speech editing via single frame edit.

Applied Compute — Custom models and in-house AI agents for enterprises.

ChainDesk — No-code platform for creating custom AI chatbots w/custom data.

Human Interest — 401(k) retirement plans platform for SMEs, raised $100M+.

Adam — AI copilot for CAD workflows for mechanical engineering processes.

BUZZY TECH

The Latest Deep Technology & Trends To Watch

Not in a Simulation — Physicists claim proof the universe can't be fully simulated.

Hypersonix Hydrogen Jet — Reusable hypersonic aircraft reaches Mach 12.

Biochar from Wood — Biochar with steel-like hardness from wood waste.

Utopai East — Grandson of LG founder launches Korean AI filmmaking company.

CRYPTO WATCH

Market in Limbo — Global crypto investment products saw $360M in net outflows last week after Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks. U.S. crypto funds lost $435M, Bitcoin ETPs shed $946M, while Eth & Sol products gained $57.6M & $421M.

IREN — Microsoft's $9.7B deal with IREN highlights the shift of bitcoin miners towards AI. The deal grants MS access to Nvidia chips, marking a transformation for IREN into a key player in AI data centers, with its stock surging.

Eth Stablecoin Surge — Stablecoin transaction volume on Ethereum hit a record $2.82T in October, up 45% from September. USDC led with $1.62T, followed by USDT at $895.5B, reflecting active liquidity management and increased payments use.

Hong Kong Crypto Boost — Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission will let local crypto exchanges share global order books, enhancing liquidity. Licensed tokens and stablecoins are exempt from trading history requirements.

Balancer Breach — The Eth-based DEX suffered an exploit, with $128.6M withdrawn. A suspected faulty smart contract check prompted an investigation. Balancer's token BAL dropped 4%+ as the multi-chain attack continues.

JPM Blockchain Push — JPMorgan Chase has tokenized a private-equity fund on its blockchain platform to simplify alternative asset investments for wealthy clients. This precedes the Kinexys Fund Flow launch, enhancing transparency and efficiency.

Liquid — The crypto startup raised $7.6M in seed funding led by Paradigm to enhance its platform offering institutional-grade trading tools. Liquid has processed over $500M in trading volume and is expanding its NYC team.

SPACE_RACE

NASA X-59 Quesst_Test flight aims to reduce sonic boom for supersonic travel.

Yaogan-46 Satellite_China's 68th launch boosts military reconnaissance.

SpaceX Bandwagon-4_Launched 18 payloads including AI data centers.

Starlink Satellites_Future satellites as data centers with laser links.

Rocket Lab-Mynaric Deal_Germany reviews $150M acquisition by Rocket Lab.

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