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Real Estate Tech Defies Market

Alpha
May 09, 2025

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WHAT’S INSIDE

Tech In The News: Market Surge, Chip exports, tariffs, Fed, DOGE, OpenAI
Companies to watch: Rove, Unitree, ServiceNow, Onsemi, Strive, Disney
Feature: Real Estate Tech Defies Market
Buzzy Tools: Latest Buzzy tech, AI and financial tools
Deep Tech: The latest in deep tech, biotech, futurism and more
Space Tech: Latest news in the space race and aerospace tech
Crypto: Blockchain and crypto policy and startups or protocols to watch

TECH IN THE NEWS

Market Surge — Global equities rose as a US-UK trade deal and easing tariff fears lifted the USD and Treasury yields. Optimism grows for potential China trade talks, with cryptocurrencies and oil prices also experiencing gains amid positive sentiment.

Chip-lomacy — Semiconductor shares rally on news Trump intends to revoke Biden-era AI chip export restrictions to ease negotiations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, while pressuring China.

Tariff Turmoil — Investors are still treading carefully amid President Trump's tariffs and Federal Reserve interest rate uncertainty, focusing on inflation-protected assets and resilient companies.

Trump vs. Powell — Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, arguing it would boost the economy. Powell maintains a cautious approach due to inflation and trade concerns.

Fast-Track Layoffs — The U.S. government plans to use a Pentagon-developed AI tool to accelerate DOGE federal layoffs.

Musk’s Not Done — Elon Musk's attorney argues OpenAI's new restructuring plan fails to resolve core issues and continues to improperly benefit private parties, including CEO Sam Altman and investors.

Imagine if Zillow knew exactly who would transact real estate next week…

Leveraging unmatched behavioral data intelligence, the platform predicts homeowner transactions before competitors even know they exist. Proprietary AI agents—powering 80% of Real Intent’s technology—automate the majority of brokers’ and agents’ most time-draining workflows, enabling them to focus solely on closing deals.

First $1M ARR achieved within 6 months
Serves over 500 agents in less than 12 months (launched June 2024)
Trusted by agents from 8 of America’s top 10 brokerages
Exclusive 1AgentPerZip™ model transforms zip codes into strategic, protected assets

COMPANIES TO WATCH

OpenAI Goes Global — OpenAI launches "OpenAI for Countries," assisting nations in developing AI infrastructure and tailored tools to promote democratic AI principles, and to drive expansion of the Stargate infrastructure project.

Disney Magic — Disney beats expectations with Disney+ gaining 1.4M subscribers and a 13% increase in domestic parks revenue. Plans for a new Abu Dhabi park.

Rove — Founded by Max Morganroth, Rove enables Gen Z to earn airline miles without credit cards by converting shopping points into miles via affiliate marketing.

Unitree — The robotics company partnered with Reborn to enhance AI in humanoid robots. Utilizing Reborn's Roboverse simulator and extensive human motion datasets.

ServiceNow — Acquired Data.World, a data governance platform, to bolster its AI capabilities after buying Moveworks. Aims to enhance data organization for AI readiness and enterprise automation.

Onsemi — The Arizona-based chipmaker expects Q2 revenue of 1.40B−1.50B, surpassing Wall Street estimates. Strong demand from electric vehicle manufacturers drives this growth.

Strive — Strive's CEO seeks funding to acquire undervalued public firms with plans to transform their treasuries into Bitcoin.

SignalFires — Read the Top signals, Startups + Deals From Last Week

Real Estate Tech Platforms Soar While Market Struggles

Against a backdrop of 7% mortgage rates paralyzing the housing market, Zillow and Compass have achieved remarkable success. These digital innovators are thriving amid economic challenges, causing Wall Street to reassess real estate market dynamics during periods of economic uncertainty.

Zillow Shatters Quarterly Expectations

$ZG ( ▲ 1.97% ) Zillow's Q1 2025 results dramatically exceeded forecasts with $598 million in revenue—representing 13% year-over-year growth compared to analyst expectations of $587.69 million. Even more impressive: earnings per share reached $0.41, significantly above the projected $0.37, transforming last year's $23 million loss into an $8 million profit.

The source of this growth proves particularly significant. Zillow outpaced the residential real estate industry's transaction value growth of 3-6%. Their rentals division saw exceptional 33% growth to $129 million—setting an all-time record—while their mortgage segment grew 32% in a stagnant mortgage origination market.

Compass Achieves Record-Breaking Performance

Breaking news out yesterday confirms key Zillow rival $COMP ( ▲ 1.42% ) Compass has also released its Q1 results, validating analysts' optimistic projections. The company reported $1.46 billion in revenue, exceeding their guidance range and marking 28% year-over-year growth despite market challenges.

Compass strengthened its market dominance, capturing 5.3% of U.S. residential real estate—a 75 basis point increase y-o-y. The company delivered adjusted EBITDA of $27 million, substantially exceeding their guidance of $11-25 million, while generating $34 million in free cash flow. CEO Robert Reffkin stated: "Our record Q1 results demonstrate that Compass continues to gain momentum against industry headwinds, with transactions growing at more than 6x the market rate."

Technology Driving Market Resilience

The expanding global PropTech market helps explain this phenomenon, projected to grow 15% annually from $44.88 billion in 2025 to $119.45 billion by 2032. Advanced technologies—big data, AI, and IoT—enable these platforms to deliver personalized listings and predictive analytics that traditional brokerages cannot match.

This performance contradicts historical patterns. Housing typically leads economic downturns when recession fears emerge, yet these digital platforms are capturing significant market share precisely when traditional models struggle. Cross-border real estate investment increased 57% year-over-year, highlighting strong institutional interest in tech-enabled real estate assets.

Digital Platforms Excel Amid Economic Uncertainty

This exceptional performance occurs against growing economic concerns. The Federal Reserve continues balancing inflation against recession risks. China's central bank injects stimulus into its troubled property sector while considering housing market reforms to limit pre-sales.

Global real estate transaction activity has unexpectedly risen 34% year-over-year to $185 billion in Q1, concentrated in tech-enabled transactions—the exact domain where Zillow and Compass operate. Investors increasingly target sectors with secular growth potential such as residential and logistics, areas where these platforms maintain strong positions.

AI-Powered Prediction Driving Future Growth

While Zillow and Compass dominate current headlines, emerging startup Real Intent appears positioned to further transform the industry. By harnessing behavioral data intelligence, their platform identifies potential homeowner transactions before competitors become aware. Proprietary AI agents—comprising 80% of their technology—automate the most time-consuming agent workflows.

The company achieved $1M ARR within just 6 months and now supports over 500 agents since launching in June 2024. Their client base includes agents from 8 of America's top 10 brokerages.

What sets Real Intent apart is their exclusive 1AgentPerZip™ model, which transforms zip codes into protected assets so valuable that agents sell their zip code rights at substantial premiums.

Bottom Line

As traditional real estate firms grapple with high interest rates and economic uncertainty, companies leveraging data, AI, and digital platforms are positioned for continued success regardless of broader economic conditions.

“Zillow, worth around $17 billion, will eventually become the nation's de facto Multiple Listing Service.”

— Robert Reffkin, CEO, Compass.

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BUZZY TOOLS

Buzzy Tech Tools To Watch & Use

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Hugging Face — Open Computer Agent searches web via retro browser interface.

BUZZY TECH

The Latest Deep Technology & Trends To Watch

Meta AI Glasses — To add facial recognition "super sensing" mode.

Amazon Vulcan Robot — Force sensors allow touch perception in warehouses.

Google Android Desktop Mode — New taskbar and multitasking features.

Volonaut Airbike — Jet-powered flying bike reaches 124 mph, weighs 86 lbs.

Wireless Pain Device — Precise light-sensitive drug activation for pain therapies.

Quantum AI Music — Moth's Recurse uses quantum AI for generative music.

CRYPTO WATCH

Bitcoin Bounce — Bitcoin surged over 5% over $101,700, fueled by the Fed's rate pause and tariff concessions. The total market cap hit $3.27T. ETH had its best day since 2021 up 20%.

Trump's Memecoin — The controversial memecoin associated with Donald Trump is reportedly complicating ongoing US crypto legislation efforts.

OCC Crypto Banking — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency clarified that U.S. banks can trade and outsource crypto assets activities with proper risk management.

Bitcoin Reserves — New Hampshire is the first U.S. state to approve a strategic Bitcoin reserve, allowing up to 5% investment of public funds. Arizona followed with a House Bill establishing a crypto reserve fund for unclaimed virtual assets.

Ethereum Pectra Upgrade — The Ethereum upgrade introduces account abstraction to cut gas fees and congestion, makes ETH deflationary again.

Coinbase Acquires Deribit — Coinbase has agreed to purchase Deribit, the largest trading platform for bitcoin and ether options, for approximately $2.9B.

Stripe Stablecoins — Stripe launched Stablecoin Financial Accounts in 101 countries, enabling users to store, send, and receive stablecoins, USD, and Euros.