Adobe just dropped a bombshell prediction for this holiday season - AI-powered shopping is about to explode by 520% year-over-year, with traffic peaking in the 10 days before Thanksgiving. The forecast comes as part of Adobe's broader prediction that U.S. consumers will spend $253.4 billion online during the holidays, up 5.3% from last year, driven by mobile commerce hitting a record 56.1% share and buy-now-pay-later services reaching $20.2 billion.
Adobe is making waves with its boldest holiday shopping prediction yet. The company's analytics division expects AI-powered shopping to skyrocket by 520% this holiday season, building on last year's already explosive 1,300% increase in AI traffic to retail sites. The surge will peak during the crucial 10-day stretch leading up to Thanksgiving, when shoppers traditionally begin their holiday buying frenzy. This isn't just hype - Adobe's predictions carry serious weight in the retail world. The company analyzes over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and tracks 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories. Their analytics software powers decision-making at most of America's top 100 online retailers, giving them unprecedented visibility into shopping patterns. The AI shopping boom reflects a fundamental shift in how Americans research and buy products. According to Adobe's survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 53% plan to use AI services for product research this holiday season. Another 40% will lean on AI for personalized recommendations, while 36% want AI to help them find better deals. Gift inspiration rounds out the top uses at 30%. But AI isn't the only force reshaping holiday commerce. Mobile shopping continues its relentless march toward dominance, expected to capture a record 56.1% of all online transactions. That's up from 54.5% last year and 51.1% in 2023. The trend shows no signs of slowing, especially as smartphones get bigger screens that make browsing and buying easier. Adobe expects the overall holiday shopping bonanza to generate $253.4 billion in online sales, representing solid 5.3% growth despite economic headwinds. Cyber Monday remains the crown jewel of shopping days, projected to hit $14.2 billion in sales - up 6.3% from last year. Black Friday isn't far behind at $11.7 billion, growing even faster at 8.3%. Even Thanksgiving Day shopping is booming, with $6.4 billion expected as retailers start their sales earlier each year. The buy-now-pay-later revolution keeps gaining steam too. BNPL services are projected to drive $20.2 billion in holiday spending, up 11% year-over-year. Cyber Monday alone should see $1.04 billion in BNPL transactions, marking the first time this payment method crosses the billion-dollar threshold on a single day. Social media's influence on shopping decisions is exploding as well. Adobe forecasts that social media advertising will drive a 51% year-over-year increase in online revenue, a massive acceleration from the modest 5% growth seen in 2024. Electronics lead the spending categories at $57.5 billion, followed by apparel at $47.6 billion and furniture at $31.1 billion. Discounts will play a huge role in driving sales, with products expected to be marked down 28% off listed prices on average. The AI shopping trend spans multiple categories, but Adobe expects it to be particularly strong in toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care products - areas where consumers often need help navigating complex features or finding the right fit.
