Jim Cramer just highlighted the company that could determine the winner of the U.S.-China tech war. Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML has quietly become the most critical piece on the global tech chessboard, with its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines representing the chokepoint that could reshape the entire semiconductor industry.
ASML doesn't just make semiconductor equipment - it makes the only machines on Earth capable of producing the world's most advanced chips. That monopoly has suddenly thrust the Dutch company into the center of a brewing tech cold war.
Cramer's analysis comes as Washington ramps up pressure on allies to restrict ASML's sales to China. The company's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems are essential for manufacturing chips below 7 nanometers - the kind that power everything from Apple's latest iPhones to Nvidia's AI accelerators.
"When you control the tools that make the chips, you control the entire industry," one semiconductor analyst told Reuters last month. That's exactly the position ASML finds itself in, and why both sides of the Pacific are fighting over access to its technology.
The numbers tell the story: ASML holds roughly 90% of the EUV market, with no meaningful competition in sight. Each machine costs upward of $200 million and takes years to build. The company's order backlog currently stretches over two years, giving it pricing power that most companies can only dream of.
China has been ASML's second-largest market, accounting for roughly 25% of total sales in recent quarters. That makes export restrictions particularly painful - not just for Chinese chipmakers like SMIC, but for ASML's bottom line. The company's stock has become a real-time barometer of U.S.-China tensions, dropping sharply whenever new restrictions are announced.
But the geopolitical chess game runs deeper than simple trade math. ASML's technology enables the production of chips that power military applications, AI systems, and critical infrastructure. By controlling access to these tools, the U.S. effectively controls which countries can build next-generation semiconductor capabilities.
The Biden administration has already convinced the Netherlands to block ASML's most advanced EUV systems from reaching China. Now discussions are expanding to older DUV systems that can still produce chips for less critical applications. Each escalation forces to choose between geopolitical compliance and lucrative Chinese contracts.