The World Economic Forum just dropped a sobering forecast: business leaders are bracing for turbulence. Half of the 1,300 executives surveyed expect rough waters over the next two years, while only 1% see calm ahead. Geoeconomic confrontation—tariffs, supply chain weaponization, capital controls—has vaulted to the top of their worry list, while the dark side of artificial intelligence is climbing faster than any other risk.
The World Economic Forum has painted a bleak picture of what's coming. According to their 2026 Global Risks Report released this week, geoeconomic confrontation has sprinted to the top of near-term business worries, surpassing everything else companies are sweating about. The 1,300 leaders in government, business, and other organizations who participated in the survey aren't mincing words: nearly half expect turbulent times, and just 1% are optimistic enough to expect calm.
This shift reflects a landscape being reshaped by weaponized economics. Tariffs, regulations, supply chain restrictions, and capital controls are becoming tools of geopolitical competition, and the collateral damage could be massive. The report warns of a potential substantial contraction in global trade—the kind of economic shock that ripples across entire industries and labor markets.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi framed the stakes in stark terms when speaking to CNBC: "It's very much about state-based armed conflict and the concerns around that. So overall, nearly a third of our respondents are very concerned in 2026 about what that means for the global economy and essentially the state of the world." That's not just C-suite anxiety—it's existential worry about the system itself. Economic risks have experienced the sharpest rises among all categories the WEF surveys, and Zahidi's own analysis captures why: "Concerns are growing over an economic downturn, rising inflation and potential asset bubbles as countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets."
Marsh, the world's largest insurance brokerage (which rebranded from Marsh McLennan this week), partners with the WEF on these assessments, and CEO John Doyle offered a more direct diagnosis in an exclusive interview with CNBC. "Today is not a moment of a big global crisis, it's a moment of poly-crises," he said. Trade wars, cultural divisions, rapid tech disruption, and extreme weather aren't standalone problems—they're converging. "It's a lot for businesses to confront and to manage," Doyle said, and the weight of managing all of it at once is clearly wearing on leadership.
But here's what's capturing the most attention: the vertiginous rise of artificial intelligence as a risk. The potential for adverse AI outcomes has soared faster than any other issue in the survey, jumping from 30th place on short-term risks last year to 5th place among long-term risks. Machine learning and quantum computing are converging, and their development is accelerating—the WEF warns this could create a "supercharged landscape" where "humans lose control." That's not hyperbole in a report like this. It's a reflection of what's keeping executives up at night.