The narrative that AI investment saved the U.S. economy from collapse just got upended. A new analysis from MRB Partners reveals that consumer spending - not artificial intelligence capital expenditures - was the primary driver of U.S. GDP growth in 2025, with AI's actual contribution closer to 20-25% once you account for imported hardware. The finding challenges months of Wall Street orthodoxy that positioned AI as the economy's sole lifeline and suggests the domestic expansion is more balanced than headlines suggest.
The AI hype cycle just collided with economic reality. While tech giants have poured hundreds of billions into data centers and chips, a January report from MRB Partners shows that consumer spending - not artificial intelligence - was the true engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025.
The findings challenge a narrative that dominated financial media and analyst calls throughout the year: that AI investment was the only thing preventing economic stagnation. "AI is an important part of the growth story, but it's not the only part of the growth story," MRB Partners U.S. economic strategist Prajakta Bhide told CNBC in an interview. "Still, it's the U.S. consumer that continues to drive the expansion."
The math tells a different story than the headlines. Without adjusting for imports, AI-related components appeared to add around 90 basis points to real GDP growth between Q1 and Q3 2025 - roughly 40% of average growth during that period. But here's the catch: GDP measures domestic production, and a massive share of AI hardware comes from overseas.
When Bhide adjusted for real imports of computers, peripherals, semiconductors and telecom equipment, AI's net contribution dropped to just 40-50 basis points, or about 20-25% of real GDP growth. The difference matters because it reveals how much of the AI spending boom simply flowed to foreign chip manufacturers and equipment suppliers rather than boosting domestic economic activity.
The data center construction frenzy that's reshaped rural American landscapes from Louisiana to Ohio didn't contribute as much as many assumed. Bhide found that investments in software and computers delivered more GDP impact than the physical infrastructure getting all the press attention. 5-gigawatt Hyperion facility in Louisiana and similar projects represent enormous capital outlays, but much of that spending goes to imported equipment.
