Tesla is about to report what could be its most challenging quarter yet. Wall Street expects the electric vehicle maker to post a 3.6% revenue decline to $24.79 billion when it announces fourth-quarter results after the bell today, marking the third drop in four quarters. If full-year projections hold at $95 billion, it'll be the company's first annual revenue decline since going public - a stark reversal for an automaker that built its reputation on relentless growth.
Tesla is running out of road on its growth story. The company reports fourth-quarter earnings this afternoon, and the numbers tell a tale of an automotive giant hitting the brakes. Analysts polled by LSEG expect revenue of $24.79 billion, down from $25.7 billion a year ago - the third quarterly decline in the past four quarters.
But it's the full-year picture that's really turning heads. Tesla's projected 2025 revenue of roughly $95 billion would represent a 2.8% slide from 2024, marking the first annual revenue drop in the company's history as a public entity. For a company that's spent over a decade defying automotive industry gravity, it's a jarring reversal.
The culprit? Competition is finally catching up. BYD and other Chinese automakers have been eating Tesla's lunch in the world's largest EV market, forcing price cuts and squeezing margins. Earlier this month, Tesla reported a 16% nosedive in vehicle deliveries for Q4, with the full year down 8.6%. The company calls these "deliveries" rather than sales in its shareholder communications, but they're the closest proxy investors get for actual demand.
CEO Elon Musk has been working overtime to redirect the narrative. While core auto sales stumble, he's been hyping Tesla's Robotaxi ambitions and pitching Optimus humanoid robots that have yet to reach customers. Last week, Tesla executives announced they'd pulled human safety supervisors from a handful of vehicles in their Austin pilot program, allowing genuine driverless passenger rides.
