The private market hierarchy just flipped. Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI as the hottest trade in secondary markets, according to Glen Anderson, president of Rainmaker Securities, who says private share trading has never been more active. But the real story might be what happens when SpaceX goes public - a move that could drain billions in liquidity away from AI startups just as valuations reach fever pitch.
Something fundamental shifted in how investors value the AI race. Glen Anderson has watched private markets for decades, but what he's seeing now with Anthropic represents a genuine inflection point. As president of Rainmaker Securities, Anderson told TechCrunch that Anthropic has become the single most active trade in the secondary market - eclipsing OpenAI for the first time since ChatGPT's launch.
The reversal speaks volumes about where sophisticated investors think the AI market is heading. OpenAI dominated private market trading through 2024 and most of 2025, riding the ChatGPT wave that redefined consumer AI. But Anthropic's Claude models have been winning enterprise contracts at an accelerating pace, and institutional investors are placing their bets accordingly. The company's focus on AI safety and constitutional AI has resonated particularly well with regulated industries like healthcare and finance, where OpenAI's more aggressive deployment strategy faces scrutiny.
Anderson's observation carries weight because secondary markets often signal shifts before they show up in primary fundraising rounds. When employees and early investors start trading their shares more actively, it reflects real-time conviction about a company's trajectory. The fact that Anthropic shares are changing hands more frequently than OpenAI's suggests a fundamental reassessment of competitive positioning in the foundation model wars.
But here's where the story gets more complex. Anderson warned that SpaceX's looming IPO could "reshape the landscape for everyone" in private markets. The Elon Musk-led rocket company has been valued at over $200 billion in private markets, and when it finally goes public, the offering could absorb tens of billions in investor capital. That's money that might otherwise flow into late-stage AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.
The timing couldn't be trickier for AI startups. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are burning cash at extraordinary rates to train increasingly powerful models and build out infrastructure. Anthropic recently raised funding at a valuation reportedly exceeding $18 billion, while OpenAI's last round valued it at $157 billion. Those numbers depend on continued access to patient capital willing to fund years of losses in pursuit of transformational technology.
A SpaceX IPO would create what Anderson describes as a "liquidity event" that redirects capital allocation across the entire venture ecosystem. Institutional investors have finite budgets for high-risk, high-reward positions. If they deploy billions into SpaceX shares, that necessarily means less capital available for private AI companies seeking liquidity or new funding. The secondary market activity that Anderson monitors would likely cool significantly as investors shift focus.
What makes this particularly interesting is the contrast in business models. SpaceX has actual revenue - over $9 billion in 2024 from Starlink subscriptions and launch contracts - while most foundation model companies are still proving out sustainable unit economics. Some investors may welcome the chance to rotate capital from speculative AI plays into a profitable aerospace business with government contracts and recurring revenue.
The competitive dynamic between Anthropic and OpenAI has intensified dramatically over the past year. Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model has been praised for its reasoning capabilities and longer context windows, while OpenAI's GPT-4 and o1 models maintain advantages in certain benchmarks. But technical performance alone doesn't explain the trading shift Anderson is witnessing. Enterprise buyers increasingly view Anthropic as the safer long-term bet, particularly as questions swirl around OpenAI's complex corporate structure and governance following the brief CEO drama of 2023.
Anderson noted that the secondary market has "never been more active" overall, suggesting that private company employees and early investors are eager to take liquidity while valuations remain elevated. That urgency might reflect concerns about a potential valuation correction if capital flows toward SpaceX and away from AI. The window for sellers to achieve premium prices could be closing faster than many realize.
For context, secondary market activity serves as a real-time sentiment indicator that often precedes moves in primary markets. When shares trade actively at stable or rising prices, it signals confidence. When volume drops or sellers outnumber buyers, it foreshadows valuation pressure. Anderson's comments suggest we're at a peak moment for AI company valuations in private markets, with the SpaceX IPO representing a potential catalyst for normalization.
The private market reshuffle reveals how quickly investor sentiment can shift in AI, even as the underlying technology continues advancing. Anthropic's rise past OpenAI in secondary trading reflects genuine enterprise traction and a growing preference for its safety-focused approach. But the bigger question is whether the entire AI startup ecosystem can sustain current valuations once SpaceX pulls billions out of the private market liquidity pool. Anderson's warning suggests that 2026 might mark the high-water mark for AI company valuations in private markets, at least until these businesses demonstrate the kind of sustainable revenue that SpaceX already enjoys. For employees and early investors holding private shares, the message is clear: the window to sell at peak prices might be narrower than expected.
